SOUNDING BOARD is an outlet for opinions on good and crazy things going on at home (wherever I may be). All are welcome. You are not expected to bring anything except your common sense & sense of humor.
'If the automobile had followed the same development cycle as the computer, a Rolls-Royce would today cost $100, get one million miles to the gallon, and explode once a year, killing everyone inside.'
-Robert X. Cringely (from geek wisdom)
SOUNDING BOARD
Sunday, September 29, 2002
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So it's a psychological warfare before the passage of the official UN Security Council resolution. US threatens to go in; Iraq threatens that it won't be a picnic for US. We shall see if the moves will change once the UN Security Council resolution is final.
One thing is certain, US is not backing out from its threat. So if this is a "chicken" game, and the official resolution is passed, Iraq's rational move is to yield. But Saddam is anything but rational.
It is risky to approach this whole thing from the point of view of deterrence. There may be some aspects of deterrence in general issues on homeland defense. However, it seems reasonable to believe that rational choice theory (hence, game theory) does not explain adequately Saddam's moves (of course we can half-seriously say he isn't a rational person). Propect theory may explain it better, and I think this paper lays the foundation for further analysis.
posted by Allan at 4:08 AM (GMT+8)
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