SOUNDING BOARD is an outlet for opinions on good and crazy things going on at home (wherever I may be). All are welcome. You are not expected to bring anything except your common sense & sense of humor.
'If the automobile had followed the same development cycle as the computer, a Rolls-Royce would today cost $100, get one million miles to the gallon, and explode once a year, killing everyone inside.'
-Robert X. Cringely (from geek wisdom)
SOUNDING BOARD
Sunday, February 02, 2003
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When evidences are not so compelling (and the smoking gun can't be found)
If war is not a viable alternative at the moment (lest US be alienating itself from its allies and encouraging greater anti-US sentiments across the globe), Bush should shift his energies from finding the smoking gun to further alienating Iraq from its allies.
There are six reasons why allies want Bush to slow down, according to Johanna McGeary of TIME: (1) we need to see more proof on Iraq; (2) inspections should last longer; (3) the UN must be the one to authorize war; (4) invading Iraq disrupts the war on terror; (5) cowboy bush is back, and his style grates; and (6) America's foreign policy is too arrogant.
It is almost unlikely that US will find a smoking gun, and it is not very smart to expect a replay of what we saw during the Cuban missile crisis. And without the smoking gun, forget convincing France and Russia, and of course, China. However, If, indeed, Saddam has programs on weapons of mass destruction, France may be right in thinking that the inspections froze such programs. Maybe, but the deterrent role of the inspections is questionable. The inspections could not continue forever. Once the inspections regime ends, there is no guarantee that we'll see a WMD-free Iraq.
This must be why Bush is still acting tough and relentlessly threatening to go it alone. The doves has already claimed its victory when US opted to make its moves under the umbrella of UN. It is not over yet. Of course, going alone is a diplomatic suicide for Bush, and as Joseph Nye stresses, such act would diminish America's soft power. If we can't assume that these things are under Bush's cowboy hat, we can safely assume that these are crucial considerations for his advisers.
What else is there to consider? Putting together the intelligence puzzle should be done strategically, putting the spotlight on countries with suspected links with Iraq. And France and Russia should be on top of the list. Cutting Iraq from the rest of the world (and from suppliers of materials and equipments used for weapons production) may well be a more viable alternative than looking for the smoking gun.
posted by Allan at 11:08 PM (GMT+8)
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